Startlingly poor statistical analysis

things appear to be going backward with the number of black executives declining from 29 percent to 27 percent in the most recent figures.

This was a statement from an article where Community and Cultural Affairs Minister Wayne Perinchief justifies the proposed racial equity law.  This is just another example of poor statistical analysis on the part of our leadership. 

29% black executives suggests that out of 100 executives, 29 are black.  Taking that 100 as a benchmark, that means we have a pool of 29 qualified well educated black executives to pull from.

Now consider the 10 new insurance companies that formed in only the last 3 months, let alone who knows how many others over the last couple years. Then ask yourself, if we have 29 qualified and well educated black Bermudians and you add 10 new companies, does that stretch the pool of available qualified black Bermudians? 

Well, using our benchmark of 100, only 7 new executives would need to be added to cause a shift to 27%.  That would mean that while the total number of black executives, 29, has not changed, the percentage would, thus giving us 27% of executives being black.  So, there are now 29 black executives out of 107.

Far too many people incorrectly see this as ‘things going backward’ in a clear misunderstanding of basic analysis.  In reality, lets say that on average those 10 companies each add 1 representative executive to our benchmark.  That means, we have 110 executives overall instead of 100.  Now we take our 27% of 110 which gives us 29.7, or rounded up, 30 black executives.

Is it possible that the number of black executives may well have increased  and not decreased?

Prove me right or wrong.  Show me the hard numbers over the last 5 years of:

# of black Bermudian executives
# of white Bermudian executives
# of black ex-pat executives
# of white ex-pat executives. 

No percentages, hard numbers.  Prove to me that there has been a decrease in the total number of black executives, not just the percentage due too the influx of new companies.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized by . Bookmark the permalink.

8
Leave a Reply

Please Login to comment
8 Comment threads
0 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
5 Comment authors
TinyvanzsilencedogoodDenis PitcherCharter Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Charter
Guest
Charter

You are so right. This initiative is being driven by emotion and politics … not by the facts.

silencedogood
Guest
silencedogood

Denis, I think its great you are holding the Minister to account and completely agree, but the simple fact is that Mr. Perinchief has no interest in reaching the truth. After reading yesterdays article it seems that at best, he is a true believer whose faith that oppression permeates everything insulates him from any facts to the contrary. There are no shades of gray, only black and white. At worst, he is a loyal Brown crony deliberately distorting statistics because we are approaching an election (whether pre-christmas or next year)and it pays in Bermuda politics to play the race card.… Read more »

Denis Pitcher
Guest

Silencedogood, Trying to get freedom of information legislation enacted would be just as futile. All I’m doing is testing the PLP to see if they are as honest and forthright as many of their supporters contest. Their refusal to answer my basic inquiries serves to demonstrate that they may not be as honest as they are proported to be and may well have dishonourable intentions for our future. It matters little what Mr. Perinchief believes or thinks. What does matter is what the voters who elect him into power think. They hold all the true power whether they realise it… Read more »

silencedogood
Guest
silencedogood

Denis, I’m not trying to be critical. Hope that is not how it came off. I do agree that flagging instances where the PLP are not being forthright is important, but to my mind there are more flags standing out there already than a UN delegation playing minigolf on a cruiseship. (I’m full of poetic license today) At some point I wonder how many more does it take? I favor the free information legislation because it’s durable and trancends the present government. Say the UBP wins, but after a few years back in power they start pulling similar stunts to… Read more »

Denis Pitcher
Guest

Silencedogood, I certainly didn’t take your remarks as critical. My point is, I’ve been down that road. I watched with a great amount of disgust as our former Premier told half the electorate we were stupid (ie. “we didn’t know what we were signing”) I’ve been at this for a while now and have learned is that the only way we will acheive freedom of information legislation is to have the people unite to demand it. People won’t be conviced over a single ignored question. They’ll be convinced after hundreds. You need to win the people’s support if you hope… Read more »

silencedogood
Guest
silencedogood

Ok, point taken.

vanz
Guest

an interesting NYT article on the status of black executives:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/01/business/01generation.html?th&emc=th

Tiny
Guest
Tiny

Very interesting – thanks for posting it.
One element of the problem is the triangle here:
While 15 percent of college graduates are African-American and Hispanic, John Rice, president of M.L.T., said, they only represent 8 percent of M.B.A. students at the top 25 business schools, only 3 percent of senior management positions and 1.6 percent of Fortune 1000 chief executives.