Senators discussing the impact of a potential US recession may be missing the bigger picture as they refer to the impending or potentially current recession as “small” and “short”. Yet judging by a recent Duke University survey of CFOs, the situation may be slightly more bleak.
- 54% of CFOs say the US economy is now in recession
- Another 24% say more than 50% chance of recession in 2008
- 87% say no recovery until 2009
John R. Graham, director of the survey and a finance professor at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business suggested:
“Today, not only do the CFOs say we are already in recession, they predict a prolonged economic downturn. The news from CFOs is pretty grim.”
Duke professor Campbell R. Harvey noted:
“the last two recessions lasted only eight months. In contrast, 90 percent of the CFOs do not believe the economy will turn the corner in 2008. Indeed, many of them believe it will be late 2009 before a recovery takes hold.
This could be the longest slowdown since the double dip recession of 1979-81.”
Hmm… small and short? Perhaps not. So when the Senators look at 2001 or 1990 as benchmarks for Bermudian impact, perhaps they aren’t looking back far enough.