Examining the bye-election results

The recent bye-election should serve as a wakeup call for the OBA.  What they’re doing isn’t working.  This may have been a bye-election in a stronghold seat however what is absolutely clear is that the PLP has a mobilized base and the OBA does not.  If the OBA wants any hope of getting reelected they need to take a serious look at their approach and pivot before its too late.

The PLP dominated the percentage of the turnout garnering 81% of the votes of those who showed up vs. the OBA’s 17%.  While historically the OBA/UBP has underperformed in constituency 26, their vote numbers were almost half of what they normally are.

But… but…  it’s a bye-election right?  Well we’ve had one before back when the the OBA and UBP were still separate entities.  The overall turnout of that bye election was terrible at about 40% of the total number of registered voters vs. this by elections 52% and the rough range of 65-75% seen in the last few elections.  Turnout wasn’t spectacular but the OBA’s percentage of the vote was significantly lower than the last bye election.

Let’s take a closer look at the turnout percentages themselves.

You can see here that the total turnout wasn’t great but the proportion of the turnout that voted OBA was abysmal.

Looking at these charts and the overall numbers one can make one of two boad conclusions

Though, looking at the turnout numbers and overall percentages it suggests to me that the bulk of the cause was either 

  • There was a big shift of people who voted for the PLP instead of the OBA.
  • PLP supporters turned out in force and OBA supporters stayed home (suggesting the OBA has weak support at the moment, especially to fight for a seat in a PLP stronghold)

Either way you look at it this is a terrible result for the OBA.  Either people dislike the OBA so much they’re converting into PLP supporters or the OBA has disenfranchised people so much that they can’t really be bothered.

Ultimately it makes one thing absolutely clear.  The OBA’s strategy isn’t working and if they hope to win the coming general election they’re likely going to need to be a lot more than “not the PLP” to convince people to get out and vote.